Crypto Traders Say Inflation Already Priced Into Bitcoin

BTC$106,803.77 rose 2.4% in the past 24 hours in a sign of resilience after it briefly fell below $19,000 on Wednesday before recovering to as high as $20,300 on Thursday morning.

ETH$3,821.57 added 4.3% to trade at nearly $1,100 in the past 24 hours. Gains in major cryptos ranged from 15% for Polygon’s MATIC tokens to nominal movements of over 1% on XRP and Cardano’s ADA. Total crypto market capitalization rose 2.6% overnight to regain the $900 billion level.

U.S. inflation data came out stronger than expected on Wednesday, which triggered an impulsive wave of dollar appreciation and a sell-off in risky assets.

Bitcoin, however, found buyers quickly on the decline and recovered any losses from Wednesday’s move, Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said.

“This is a notable moment, as crypto has often taken on the role of a leading indicator of market sentiment in recent months,” Kuptsikevich said. “Bitcoin may continue to fall but will hit another all-time high in the next 24 months, according to CoinShares. At the same time, prices are not expected to fall below $14,000.”

Some traders suggested high inflation readings were already priced in. "bitcoin's reaction, or lack thereof, is not much different from traditional markets. It will take a bit more than that to move the needle," Jin Gonzalez of Oz Finance told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“Inflation is old news. We all knew it was coming," Gonzalez added. "For now, bitcoin is likely to settle around $20,000, but a significant event demonstrating that the broader market is recovering is required for it to regain power. Investors will remain cautious as long as forecasts are pessimistic, so the market will not move significantly,."

Anton Gulin, business director at crypto exchange AAX, seconded that sentiment. “By this session, it feels like inflation readings became so mainstream that they stopped impacting the markets,” he said, adding that futures tracking the S&P500 didn’t fall below the local lows even as inflation reached four-decade highs.

“Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are trading at the same level," he added. "We may expect a DXY (U.S. dollar index) correction in the coming time, which may result in short-term rallies. But all in all, it’s the same old devastating and boring accumulation phase."

Meanwhile, Aleks Gladskikh, founder at crypto market making firm Marketmaking.pro, noted that major crypto investors remain optimistic and continuing to invest in the sector.

“The investment pace slowed down in 2022, but the record level of a blockchain-focused venture dry powder is waiting to be deployed,” Gladskikh said. “We expect the new crypto bull market to start before the end of 2022.”