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Chart of The Week: Will April Bring Good Luck or Fool's Hope for Bitcoin?
Based on bitcoin's price performance since 2010, April could be the start of an uptrend, but risks remain.
What to know:
- Over $160 billion of the total cryptocurrency market cap has been wiped out since Friday due to factors such as Trump's tariff threats and global economy concerns.
- Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests a potential upturn in April, with bitcoin historically averaging a 27% return in this month.
- The defunct exchange Mt. Gox's transfer of a significant amount of bitcoin could create market volatility due to fear of creditors' liquidations.
It's a bloodbath for digital assets, with traders hitting the sell button, wiping out over $160 billion of the total cryptocurrency market cap since Friday.
Few things have compounded as the first quarter of this year closes out, leading to the sell-off, including Trump's tariff threats, global economic concerns and the lack of a clear catalyst for the next leg up.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
However, if history is anything to go by, there might be some glimmer of hope heading into the second quarter, as April could bring a bullish setup for crypto.
Based on the total percent return since 2010, April has brought in an average 27% return for bitcoin, marking it the third-best month, according to Barchart data. November and May were the other two months with the highest returns, with about 38% and 26% gains, respectively.
As CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole reported for Crypto Daybook Americas—a premium newsletter offering to help traders make informed investment decisions—this seasonality could be a much-needed positive indicator for the market.
"Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible," Godbole wrote.
One cog in the wheel may be the defunct exchange Mt. Gox's transfer of a significant amount of bitcoin to the centralized exchange's wallets, which could create fear of creditors' liquidations.
"A potential short-term risk is Mt. Gox, which has been transferring sizable amounts of BTC to Kraken—this may lead to temporary selling pressure or market volatility," said Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers.
Read more: Now Is 'Really Good Time' to Buy Bitcoin, Says Trillion Dollar Investment Manager
Aoyon Ashraf
Aoyon Ashraf is CoinDesk's managing editor for Breaking News. He spent almost a decade at Bloomberg covering equities, commodities and tech. Prior to that, he spent several years on the sellside, financing small-cap companies. Aoyon graduated from University of Toronto with a degree in mining engineering. He holds ETH and BTC, as well as ALGO, ADA, SOL, OP and some other altcoins which are below CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1,000.
