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Bitcoin 'Bear Cross' Raises Outlook for Bull Revival
A bearish but historically contrary indicator suggests an end to the market decline and a bullish revival ahead.
Updated May 11, 2023, 4:37 p.m. Published Jul 8, 2022, 8:42 a.m.
Yes, you read the headline right. An impending bearish crossover, a technical pattern theoretically suggesting continued weakness in the bitcoin (BTC) price, could be a trap for sellers and portend a bullish revival.
- A three-day candlestick chart shows the simple moving average (SMA) of the past 100 candlesticks is on the verge of crossing below the 200-candle SMA, confirming the first bearish crossover of the two averages since December 2018.
- Historically, the crossover has marked an end of bear markets and paved the way for notable bull runs.
- The averages crossed bearishly in December 2018, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. bottomed near $3,200 and spent the following three months building a base for a rally. The cryptocurrency hit a high of $13,800 by the end of June 2019.
- The bear cross of February 2015 coincided with peak selling, and bitcoin began a multiyear bull run seven months later. The first bear cross, dated June 2012, also trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market.
- Crossovers between longer duration moving averages are known to be contrary indicators because they are based on past data and tend to lag prices. The market is often battered, oversold and overdue for a reversal higher by the time the crossover is confirmed.
- Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. That said, history could repeat itself because the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkishness, or anti-stimulus stance, appears to have peaked and traders are now pricing interest rate cuts for 2023.
- Bitcoin was last trading near $21,730, representing a 6% gain on a 24-hour basis.
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- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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Solana CME Futures Fell Short of BTC and ETH Debuts, but There's a Catch
When adjusted for asset market capitalization SOL's relative futures volume looks better, K33 Research noted.
O que saber:
- Solana's SOL futures began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, with a notional daily volume of $12.3 million and $7.8 million in open interest, significantly lower than the debuts of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures.
- Despite the seemingly lackluster debut, when adjusted to market value, SOL's first-day figures are more in line with BTC's and ETH's, according to K33 Research.
- Despite the bearish market conditions, the launch of CME SOL futures offers new ways for institutions to manage their exposure to the token, said Joshua Lim of FalconX.
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