|Election Coverage 2024

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Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Lose Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement.

By Marc Hochstein, Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Nick Baker

Updated Jun 24, 2024, 9:57 p.m. Published Jun 24, 2024, 4:22 p.m.

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - JANUARY 09: U.S. President Joe Biden looks on during a welcome ceremony as part of the '2023 North American Leaders' Summit at Palacio Nacional on January 09, 2023 in Mexico City, Mexico. President Lopez Obrador, USA President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gather in Mexico from January 9 to 11 as part of the 10th North American Leaders' Summit. The agenda includes topics on the climate change, immigration, trade and economic integration, security among others. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images) — Biden has a 56% chance of winning the popular vote, but only 35% odds of prevailing in the electoral college. (Hector Vivas/Getty Images)