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Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $40K

BTC re-tested minor support around $30,000 over the weekend, but stronger support is seen around $27,000.

Updated Mar 6, 2023, 3:21 p.m. Published May 24, 2021, 11:29 a.m.
Bitcoin four-hour chart

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure over the weekend as traders react to China’s latest news about tightening crypto regulation. The cryptocurrency is down about 36% month to date and was trading around $37,000 at the time of writing. Price recoveries should remain limited to $40,000 as the broader uptrend weakens.

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Slowing momentum has been the dominant theme this year as bitcoin failed to maintain all-time highs. Long term sell signals were in place before headlines accelerated price declines, which preceded a gradual and then sudden capitulation of long positions.

  • The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart has struggled to break above neutral over the past week. In a downtrend, oversold readings can persist for extended periods, which suggests a lack of significant support levels.
  • Bitcoin re-tested minor support around $30,000 over the weekend, but stronger support is seen around $27,000.
  • BTC is trading below the 100-day moving average and the correction does not appear exhausted at current levels. This means sellers should remain active as bitcoin struggles to break above $40,000.

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Solana CME futures first-day activity compared to BTC and ETH debuts. (CME/K33 Research)

When adjusted for asset market capitalization SOL's relative futures volume looks better, K33 Research noted.

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  • Solana's SOL futures began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, with a notional daily volume of $12.3 million and $7.8 million in open interest, significantly lower than the debuts of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures.
  • Despite the seemingly lackluster debut, when adjusted to market value, SOL's first-day figures are more in line with BTC's and ETH's, according to K33 Research.
  • Despite the bearish market conditions, the launch of CME SOL futures offers new ways for institutions to manage their exposure to the token, said Joshua Lim of FalconX.