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Bitcoin Sees First Ever Weekly 'Golden Cross,' a Bullish Signal to Some
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin's price has crossed above the 200-week SMA for the first time on record.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 8:05 p.m. Published Jan 17, 2024, 7:37 a.m.
Market enthusiasts call it a "golden cross," indicating a positive shift in asset prices, and now this marker has finally appeared on the bitcoin [BTC] weekly price chart.
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on bitcoin has crossed over the 200-week SMA for the first time on record, confirming the golden cross. The phrase and its counterpart, "the death cross," in which the short-duration SMA dips below the long-duration SMA, originated in Japan, per some technical analysis textbooks.
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Many traders see crossovers as forward-looking indicators, with the golden version signaling a long-term bull market ahead.
The bullish interpretation could be challenged because averages are based on past data and tends to lag prices. In other words, averages represent what happened in the past, and the first golden cross on the weekly chart results from bitcoin rallying over 70% to $42,700 in four months.
Thus, seasoned traders consider crossovers as lagging indicators, often coinciding with trend exhaustion. For instance, the weekly death cross confirmed in early 2023 marked the bottom of the bear market. Bitcoin's daily chart golden and death crossovers have a mixed record of predicting bullish and bearish trends.
Bitcoin's rally has already stalled, with the cryptocurrency trading 10% lower from highs near $49,000 registered after 11 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began trading in the U.S. last Thursday.
Per observers, the bullish momentum has waned due to early ETF flows failing to match the sky-high market expectations.
"The Net flow of funds for the ETFs has been $965M (including seed funds), a strong start thus far. However, the spot price is down from the launch-driven euphoria as investors set unreasonably high launch expectations," Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, said in a newsletter Tuesday.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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Solana CME Futures Fell Short of BTC and ETH Debuts, but There's a Catch
When adjusted for asset market capitalization SOL's relative futures volume looks better, K33 Research noted.
What to know:
- Solana's SOL futures began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, with a notional daily volume of $12.3 million and $7.8 million in open interest, significantly lower than the debuts of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) futures.
- Despite the seemingly lackluster debut, when adjusted to market value, SOL's first-day figures are more in line with BTC's and ETH's, according to K33 Research.
- Despite the bearish market conditions, the launch of CME SOL futures offers new ways for institutions to manage their exposure to the token, said Joshua Lim of FalconX.
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