How Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket Signaled Early That Biden Might Drop Out

Are prediction markets the key to finding the truth in an era of media narratives and social media algorithms?

Listen or watch all the new CoinDesk podcast episodes wherever you want.

ABOUT

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox,Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Prediction markets are gaining mainstream traction, particularly with the upcoming US elections. In this episode, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, which is an investor in Polymarket, explores how platforms like Polymarket identified the possibility that President Biden might drop out of the campaign before the mainstream media did. He talks about the journey of Polymarket, the challenges it faced, and how it overcame them to provide a credible platform for betting on political outcomes.

Finally, Nick explains why prediction markets are currently illegal in the U.S., the implications of the Supreme Court striking down Chevron's deference, and what the future holds for prediction markets in the U.S.

Show highlights:

Why prediction markets like Polymarket finally gained mainstream traction, and how 1confirmation became an early investor
What challenges Polymarket faced in its journey to mainstream recognition, and how it managed to overcome them
How prediction markets contribute to bringing more truth to the world, particularly in the context of media narratives and social media algorithms
What challenges have arisen from conflicts in resolving prediction markets on Polymarket
How bets are created and how the wording and resolution of prediction markets is managed on Polymarket
How trading volumes affect the credibility of prediction markets on Polymarket
The regulatory environment of prediction markets in the US and whether the elimination of Chevron deference by the Supreme Court will have a positive impact on these markets

Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, pop op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com.

Thank you to our sponsors!

Guest

Nick Tomaino, Founder & General Partner at 1confirmation

Links

Recent news on Polymarket:

Commentary:

Vitalik’s tweet: “Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s. Both truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites. I want to see many more things like this.”
Nick Tomaino’s tweet: “2024 will go down in history as the year prediction markets went mainstream.”

Unchained Podcast is Produced by Laura Shin Media, LLC. Distributed by CoinDesk. Senior Producer is Michele Musso and Executive Producer is Jared Schwartz.

HOST

Laura Shin

Laura Shin is a crypto journalist, host of the Unchained podcast, and author of “The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze” (Public Affairs, 2022). Formerly a senior editor at Forbes, she was the first mainstream journalist to cover crypto full-time, and her podcasts and videos have had more than 15 million downloads and views. Shin has spoken about cryptocurrency at places such as TEDx San Francisco, the International Monetary Fund, Singularity University and the Oslo Freedom Forum.

She graduated Phi Beta Kappa with Honors from Stanford University and has a master of arts from Columbia University’s School of Journalism. She lives in New York City.